By Tyler Sonderholzer
With the 2020 presidential election right around the corner, one would assume that United States President Donald J. Trump would have strong poll numbers, considering an incumbent president hasn’t lost since 1992.
The national polls, however, tell a different and dangerous story for Trump.
Trump has constantly been down in every national poll and is underperforming in states that he easily won in 2016. The scary thing for him is that all the polls—right-leaning, left-leaning and those in the center—display the same results, so it’s not merely one side being biased. Due to Trump’s performance these past few months and poor response to the COVID-19 pandemic, voters’ opinions may be shifting.
A CNN poll shows that Trump is down a whopping 12% to former Vice President Joe Biden Biden, and that the coronavirus pandemic caused a significant downfall in Trump’s approval ratings. Usually, incumbent presidents range from fair to pretty good poll numbers as shown in this Gallup approval rating trend chart from 1936-2008, with seven out of the last ten presidents running for reelection winning.
However, when an incumbent president is down in a majority of polls, chances at reelection are very slim. Multiple national polls from different sites show Biden ahead and in many cases with a comfortable lead, according to RealClearPolitics. Trump has a mountain to climb in order to get on track with Biden.
Recent polls in states such as Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which were key states in Trump’s 2016 path to the presidency, should be horrifying to see for the president’s campaign as well.
Two polls, by Fox News and Quinnipiac University, reveal a shockingly close race in Texas, which has a history of voting Republican these past several election cycles. Although Trump is only down by 1%, it still spells danger for him; if Texas votes Democrat then Trump’s chances at reelection are over. But given that Texas has been won by a Democrat only once since 1972, it’s unlikely Trump will lose the state.
Recent polls also show Trump is projected to lose by wide margins. He has slightly bounced back in certain polls; for example, he nearly wiped out a 10 point deficit in the latest Rasmussen poll. Trump still has a long way to go, though, and the upcoming presidential debates are his best shot at winning back voters unless he improves his job performance.
While most of the polls are looking in favor of Biden, there are a couple that are worrisome for him. The latest Rasmussen polls find that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters think Biden is capable of debating the president. Thirty-six percent disagree and believe he isn’t capable of debate while 11% are unsure.
In the same Rasmussen poll, 38% of all voters, including 20% of Democrats, believe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. While these polls do seem bad for Biden, he remains the clear favorite to win, as shown in overall national polling.
The polls, however, can be misleading and should only be used as a guide. 2016 is the best example of this as almost every major poll expected a Hillary Clinton presidency with Trump to lose in a landslide. He is in the same position right now as he was in 2016, but the situation is more alarming for him this time given his recent job performance.
Regardless, it remains clear that Trump is in danger and needs to change his campaign’s direction to win his reelection. Nothing has gone right for the Trump administration in the past couple of months. He has also made some questionable decisions, such as his constant nonsense tweets and his coronavirus response, that made his approval rating plummet. This final stretch of the election cycle, including his performance in the presidential debates, will make or break his chances for a second term.
